How Will Tariffs Affect Coffee Prices?

President Donald Trump is reorienting American tariff policy and the global trade order at a breakneck pace, making it difficult for ordinary Americans to understand how their lifestyle may change under Trump’s grand vision. Coffee — a staple of American life — is no exception. 

Three-quarters of U.S. adults have had coffee in the past week, with the typical consumer drinking about 3 cups daily. That’s approximately 1,095 cups annually. Collectively, Americans consumed 1.62 billion pounds of coffee last year. Now, coffee joins the ranks of once-unquestioned staples—like hygiene products, baked goods, smartphones, alcohol, and video games—whose affordability is being challenged under the Trump administration.

Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement on 57 countries, coined “Liberation Day,” unleashed a wave of global trade developments. 

And while some of Washington's trade developments may seek reindustrialization and a return of American manufacturing, the end goal of our levies on coffee-producing countries is still unclear. 

Immediately after Trump’s announcement, markets experienced their worst day in half a decade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 1,700 points. A week later, the Trump administration paused the reciprocal tariffs above 10% for 90 days, but most countries remain at the 10% baseline tariff, including coffee producing ones.

Over the following two months, the United States and China attempted to one-up each other on trade policy. The worrisome quarrel paused on May 12, when the two countries agreed on a 90-day tariff reduction to hash out a trade deal. 

The United Kingdom was the first to secure a trade agreement with the United States on May 8. Still, the UK must pay 10% duties on exports to the U.S., but avoided higher tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

And now, Trump’s trade frenzy may have been all for naught? On May 28, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not grant Trump authority to impose such hefty, unilateral tariffs. A federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the tariffs as judges now contemplate the limits of presidential authority in reshaping trade policy. 

So, what about coffee prices? The average retail price of coffee was $7.54 per pound as of April 2025. That’s a 24.5% increase from $6.06 during the same time last year But, Trump’s tariff blitz may not be at fault — yet. 

Brazil is our largest coffee supplier, so its production woes will affect us. Brazil’s total coffee production in 2024/25 is estimated at 66.4 million bags, a slight decrease from a previous forecast of about 70 million. To make matters worse, Brazil’s forecasted coffee output for 2025-2026 has declined by up to 6.4%. High temperatures and prolonged drought conditions have caused smaller bean sizes and uneven ripening. As a result, coffee prices may rise sharply in New York City. 

How do Trump’s tariffs factor into the equation? Could his first administration provide some answers on how tariffs might affect the price of your latte? The short answer is “no.”

A glance at coffee prices during his term would show that coffee prices dipped slightly before increasing during the pandemic. But that’s because there were no direct tariffs on coffee. 

His second term is entirely different: we are experiencing American tariffs on coffee for the first time since colonial times. 

Coffee prices may vary by importer, entirely dependent on the Trump administration’s discretion. Opposing countries have different duties, “non-tariff barriers,” and other forms of “cheating.” The result? Coffee from Vietnam — the world’s second-largest coffee producer — faces a 46% tariff. America plans to tariff coffee from Brazil and Colombia at 10%. 

If the U.S.-U.K. trade deal provides a blueprint for upcoming deals, expect a 10% minimum duty on coffee, regardless of the trade arrangement. That’s cause for concern: Coffee can only be grown in specific climates. Hawaii and Puerto Rico produce under 30 million pounds of coffee annually — far short of the billions that Americans consume.

Regardless, the United States imposed tariffs on every coffee-producing nation (except Mexico) and it’s unlikely Trump will completely reverse the 10% minimum. After all, he campaigned on tariffs as a permanent source for U.S. revenue. 

Brazil’s production troubles and Trump’s tariff onslaught have caused interesting ripples in the coffee market. Ethiopia has capitalized on Brazil’s production struggles. Despite selling its coffee at a higher rate, the East African nation has exceeded its export target by 142%. 

The country may benefit from Trump’s trade policy, too. Ethiopia stands to profit while one of its competitors (Vietnam) is weighed down by a nearly 50% duty.

So what does this mean for us at Solid State — and for you, our fellow coffee drinkers? In short: global trade is shifting, and with it, the price of your daily brew. The final cost will depend on Washington’s trade deals with Brazil, Colombia, and other coffee producing nations.

While we wait to see what happens with global trade agreements, please know that we are doing our best to hold the line and keep our prices stable so you can continue to enjoy amazing coffee without feeling the tariff pinch!